MENA & Central Asia

2019 Global Risk Forecast – MENA and Central Asia

Growing socio-economic pressures that have been in evidence across most of the MENA region over the past few months are unlikely to ease in 2019, elevating the risk of further protests and unrest.

Elections likely to further entrench divisions rather than unite Libya

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 10 December 2018, but far from a panacea, elections are likely to precipitate a deterioration in the security situation.

Will end of women’s driving ban put Saudi Arabia on the right road?

Saudi Arabia on 24 June lifted its driving ban on women, as it tries to get more females into the workforce; but it has also cracked down on women’s rights activists who campaigned against the ban. So how deep do the kingdom’s much-vaunted reforms of women’s rights actually go, and what do they mean for foreign businesses and expat women in Saudi Arabia?

Glass half full: How water-intensive companies can mitigate risk

The U.N. forecasts that over the next seven years, the number of people facing water scarcity will double to some 1.8 billion. If accurate, this will have negative security and political implications for water-intensive industries. Those most at risk are water-intensive producers of non-food crops such as tobacco and cotton, carbonated beverage plants, sporting and leisure parks, mining, and industries such as steel and paper production.

The restructuring of Kyrgyzstan’s ruling party

Kyrgyzstan is Central Asia’s only genuine democracy. A split within the ruling Social Democrat Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) was threatening to factionalise the party and engender political instability, but the president has now wielded the knife.

A tale of two presidents

In October 2017, President Sooronbay Jeenbekov of the SDPK was elected president, marking Central Asia’s first ...