Over the past few years, Islamist non-state armed groups (NSAG) have increased terrorist operations during Ramadan.
Between 26 May and 24 June, Muslims around the world will celebrate the month of Ramadan. The ninth month of the Islamic calendar, Ramadan is a holy month during which Muslims fast in commemoration of God's revelation of their central holy text, the Koran, to the Prophet Muhammad. Between dawn and sunset, Muslims avoid drink, food, sex and smoking, with a single large meal served after sundown.
Over the past few years, Islamist non-state armed groups (NSAG) have increased terrorist operations during Ramadan. In particular, Islamic State has interpreted religious demands on Muslims during Ramadan as a theological basis on which to encourage acts of mass political violence.
Calls for violence were cloaked in Islamic language, such as when Islamic State officials claimed that the heightened religiosity of the Ramadan season meant spiritual rewards for terrorist acts would be even greater than normal. In May 2016, an Islamic State spokesman explicitly encouraged worldwide attacks against non-Muslims, supported by details of how to inflict mass casualties.
Kinetic attacks subsequently occurred in multiple countries. In 2016 Ramadan began on 6 June and ended on 5 July. On 12 June Omar Mateen shot dead 49 people in a Florida nightclub in what was one of the worst acts of political violence in the U.S. since the 9/11 attacks. On 28 June in Turkey three gunmen attacked Istanbul Atat'rk Airport, killing at least 45 people before detonating suicide vests.
Meanwhile, on 1 July gunmen attacked a cafe in the wealthy Gulshan district of Bangladesh's capital Dhaka, killing 24 people, including 18 foreign nationals; all five attackers were also killed. On 3 July, Islamic State detonated a number of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED) in the Iraqi capital Baghdad's Karrada district killing over 300 people and injuring hundreds more.
The 2016 attacks were the most recent examples of an emergent trend. On 26 June 2015, during Ramadan, multiple attacks occurred in France, Kuwait, Syria, Somalia and Tunisia.
There are already initial indications that terrorist groups or individuals are preparing Ramadan attacks
These incidents ranged from suicide attacks, IEDs, assaults with firearms and a public decapitation. As result of these attacks over two sequential Ramadan periods, A2 assesses that an escalation in violence is also likely to occur during this year's month-long celebration.
There are already initial indications that terrorist groups or individuals are preparing Ramadan attacks. On 30 April Tunisian security forces raided a house in the interior city of Sidi Bouzid. According to a National Guard source, the house was used by a cell planning to conduct a terrorist attack during Ramadan. During the raid, the group leader detonated a suicide belt and another man was shot dead by the security forces.
It is likely that 2017's Ramadan will see an increased number of terrorist events worldwide, including in areas with generally benign security environments.
This is particularly the case as Islamic State, one of the most capable and influential Islamist NSAGs, seeks to distract attention from severe territorial losses in Iraq particularly around the city of Mosul, which is almost fully reclaimed by Iraqi military units and increasing kinetic pressure in Syria.
Whilst this is true outside of Ramadan, the spiritual and symbolic significance of the holy month means that Islamic State commanders are particularly likely to encourage terrorist operations to occur during this time period. The heightened religious fervour of Ramadan, furthermore, likely will lead to increased receptivity for militant propaganda amongst individuals at-risk of radicalisation.
Terrorist attacks act as a force multiplier, creating an impression of global reach and strategic capability with very little investment in resources or manpower. The individuals responsible for last year's attacks overwhelmingly tended to be people radicalised over the internet, with little or no formal training or command-and-control links with Islamic State or other Islamist NSAGs.
The encouragement of radicalised individuals to commit acts of political violence can be expected to be a particular priority for Islamic State this year, as it will allow the group to project force and counter its diminished prestige amongst the jihadist community without re-tasking resources tied up in the defence of its remaining territory. This creates challenges for intelligence agencies to identify and neutralise such individuals before they can become a direct threat.
2016's terror attacks overwhelmingly occurred against soft civilian targets, such as entertainment venues, posing substantial difficulties for commercial interests. In countries with overall low threat levels, introducing extensive non-state security arrangements are unrealistic.
Furthermore, even minor protective measures, such as stricter controlled access-and-egress procedures, could substantially undermine the attraction and function of entertainment-based venues. The universality of the threat adds further layers of complexity as it is not possible for many companies to assess whether their activities or profile makes them vulnerable to being targeted by NSAGs.
As a result, A2 advises companies in the entertainment sector to seek to mitigate terrorism risk by ensuring staff are briefed and trained on the actions to take in the event of discovering unattended bags or encountering suspicious personnel or behaviour.
This should include being instructed on how to evacuate customers as effectively and quickly as possible, ensuring staff are able to lock down the premises quickly without management authorisation and that all personnel are able to quickly contact management and the emergency services in the event of an incident.
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