Allowing greater foreign stakes in the Chinese O&G market, especially in the upstream side, should boost domestic energy supplies; however, this development comes against the backdrop of the recent signing of ‘Phase 1’ of the US-China trade deal, which will see China increase its procurement of US energy resources by USD18.5 billion in 2020 and USD33.9 bn in 2021. This procurement is unlikely to have a significant impact on foreign and domestic energy firms’ interests, as China has not been a large buyer from the US and this is unlikely to change until tariffs are removed. Levies are unlikely to be removed until the signing of a ‘Phase 2’ trade deal, which may not happen until after the potential beginning of US President Donald Trump’s second tenure as of November 2020.

 

In the three to six-month outlook, the increased access is unlikely to draw much overseas interest, due to the mostly mediocre quality of the country’s hydrocarbon resources. Furthermore, large Chinese firms have already exploited many of the prime assets offshore and onshore, and the remaining shale gas and oil is difficult to develop due to geological complexities. There is a moderate likelihood, however, that foreign oil and gas companies already operating in China will increase their investments. They may do so, for example, by assuming complete ownership of businesses previously partly owned with Chinese partners in a joint venture. Companies with existing interests include US firm ConocoPhillips and Anglo-Dutch firm Royal Dutch Shell. In the long-term, the improved access is also likely to benefit international companies weighing market entry and reduce China’s current heavy reliance on other countries to meet domestic energy consumption. This will be especially important as major oil exporters such as Iran are facing increased security and political risks, including sanctions.